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The Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) has 9 zones in the IGAD region and each zone has
over 30 monitored points. For each geo-referenced
monitoring point,a multiple species rangeland plant
growth model (PHYGROW) is parameterized with data
(soils, plants and grazers).The
model is then run with current satellite weather
data ( http://cnrit.tamu.edu/rsg/rainfall/rainfall.cgi)
to determine standing crop of the forage available (kg/ha) to grazing
animals. The model output is then compiled for each dekad (10-day
intervals) and processed to produce spatially-explicit forage maps for
the IGAD region and for each individual zone. To develop surface maps, the model
output (forage kg/ha) data is coupled with the
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
and put into a geostatistical
package (GS+) where an interpolation technique
called co-kriging is used. If a good correlation exists between
the forage output from PHYGROW and the NDVI, then co-kriging allows a
better estimation of forage production in areas between the monitored
points.
Ground
truthing to verify accuracy of maps is carried out
by zonal monitors cutting, clipping, oven-drying and
weighing of vegetation at the monitoring points, visual
estimations from photo-guides and comparison with
model results.
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