TexasLivestockEarly Warning System

The goal of the project is to provide producers with information onhow emerging weather conditions will affect forage quantity and qualityfor their livestock.  Maps and trend lines will make it possible forproducersto develop and implement contingency plans to mitigate the emergingadverseconditions.

The Center for Grazinglands and Ranch Management will be serving asthe provider of information and potential mitigation strategies for livestock producers while the Center for Natural Resource Information Technologywill develop the necessary information infrastructure and technologiesto acquire, analysis and deliver the necessary information to support CGRM'sactivities.

A pilot study will be in May 2000 and run through August 2000 to testthe design of the system and enhance functionality before seeking a legislative initiative for a statewide program.  Activities will take place inthe counties of the Frio, Middle Concho and Wichita river basins. Agricultural professionals from each of these counties are being askedfor assistance in establishing the foundation for this program and facilitatingthe pilot phase of the study.
 

How TxLEWS Works

Establishment of a livestock early warning system in representativeregions of Texas will address adequacy of rangeland forage production andlivestock nutrition in relation to emerging weather conditions.  Theoverall objective is to design a prototypic system that lays the foundationfor a statewidelivestock and grazinglands early warning system addressingthe needs of thelivestock industry in Texas.

Counties will be stratified using USDA-NRCS's  STATSGO soil association maps.  The centroid of each STATSGO polygon in the county is thenselected.  If polygons are long then we select points that are evenlyspaced in a manner that allows points at 10-15 mile (15-25 km) intervals. For each "point" selected in the county, a longitude/latitude will be assignedto it and linked in with the US Weather Service's NEXRAD radar system. Every hour NEXRAD rainfall estimates will be acquired via computers inthe Center for Natural Resource Information Technology, processed and thenput up on the web forthe entire state of Texas.  For each countypoint, the rainfall amountwith temperature data from the nearest weatherstation will be assembled andlinked with a plant growth model in PHYGROWfor a suite of typical plant communities representative of the sites ineach STATSGO polygon that comprise more than 80% of the land area of thatpolygon, termed virtual landscapes.  PHYGROW then grows and consumesthe forage using the soil descriptions of NRCS and typical destock/restockrules derived from local ranch focus groups.  The resulting analysiswill be percent deviation from a benchmark 25-yearaverage daily foragestanding crop computed for each plant community in theSTATSGO polygons. At the same time, a ranch located at one of the NEXRADpoints in the countywill be providing fecal samples to provide the networkwith estimates ofdiet quality of cattle at that point.  When all thepoints are assembledit will be possible to use new satellite imagery (NDVI)that measures greennessof vegetation to estimate quality and quantity offorage in areas wherewe are not collecting fecal samples or running the models. This allowsus to issue maps of deviation in forage supply, animal diets andanimalperformance at both the local level and the State level.

Benefits of TxLEWS

Sustainability of livestock production depends on timely decisionmaking by producers before drought conditions reduce options to adjustherd size, move to different pastures/ranches or initiate feeding programs. Traditionally, drought periods result in over use of vegetation, degradationof natural resources, saturated livestock markets with low prices and excessivedebt or foreclosure of ranches unable to cope with the drought conditions. Stewardship of grazing lands can be more effective  if land holdershave information warning of impending forage shortages or declines in foragequality, which provide guidance for actions to reduce risk from weatherextremes.  Benefits include:
 

• Use of strategic planning rather than reactionary measures
• Early relocation of cattle
• Orderly sales of cattle to better adjust herd size
• Mediation of degrading forces of on forage resources
• More efficient use of supplement feeds
• Knowledge of emerging trends to know when drought effects starting or ending
• Information systems to view maps, graphs and data of emerging trends in weather data, forage supply, diet quality and animal performance measured against an established benchmark

What's Involved

At the county level, a representative from the Texas Extension Service,USDA-NRCS or conservation organization, will help select the final NEXRADpoints inthe county and help select a rancher who is willing to use theirranch asone of the TxLEWS fecal monitoring and forage check points. The ranchshould be an average size operation reflecting typical forageand managementconditions in the county.  The Grazingland Animal NutritionLab in theRanching Systems Group at Texas A&M University will arrangeto send samplemailers to the ranch where the rancher or county TxLEWSrepresentative willcollect a monthly fecal sample and send to the labdetermine diet proteinand energy as well as predict animal performanceof a typical suite of animalbreeds, classes and physiological stages.

The county TxLEWS representative will also be responsible to participate in ground proofing of vegetation conditions to help confirm emerging "hot spots".  To check the model predictions we will ask these individuals to confirm the predicted forage conditions every 3 months, regardless ofthe deviation level in forage supply to confirm that the system is operatingproperly.

To find out more information, please contact The Center for Grazinglands and Ranch Management at:

Texas A&M University
225D Animal Industries Bldg.
College Station, Texas 77843-2126
888/799-4442  (phone)
979/862-7580  (phone)
979/845-6430  (fax)
cgrm@tamu.edu  (email)
http://cnrit.tamu.edu/cgrm(website)